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IMF projects Indian economy to be fastest-growing next financial year at 11.5%

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By Arul Louis (IANS): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects India’s economy to bounce back by 11.5 per cent in the next financial year, making it the fastest-growing major economy, and attributed it to the effect of easing of lockdown measures last year.

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update released in Washington last week increased the forecast by 2.7 per cent from its earlier forecast made in October last year, “reflecting carryover from a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2020 after lockdowns were eased”.

The report, however, expected the gross domestic product (GDP) to dip in 2022-23 fiscal year to 6.8 per cent.

The report put the decline in India’s economy in the current fiscal year because of the Covid-19 pandemic at 8 per cent.

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Globally, the report was buoyed by the deployment of vaccines to fight the Covid-19 pandemic.

The report said that the world economy declined by 3.5 per cent during the 2020 calendar year and would grow by 5.5 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent the next year.

“Multiple vaccine approvals and the launch of vaccination in some countries in December have raised hopes of an eventual end to the pandemic,” it said.

The report added, “Economic data released after the October 2020 WEO forecast suggest stronger-than-projected momentum on average across regions in the second half of 2020.”

China‘s economy grew by 2.3 per cent last calendar year and is forecast to grow by 8.1 per cent this year and 5.6 per cent the next year, the IMF said.

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The IMF estimate for India for the current fiscal and the forecast for the next fiscal are better than the numbers projected by the World Bank and the United Nations earlier this month.

The World Bank had forecast India’s economy to fall by 9.6 per cent during the current financial year but recover by 5.4 per cent the next financial year if there is wide vaccination against Covid-19.

The UN estimated India’s economy to decline by 5.7 per cent in 2020-21 and forecast it to rise by 7 per cent in 2021-22 and 5.6 per cent in 2022-23.


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