Indian markets will move further ahead if the exit polls prove right, but investors must still be cautious till May 23 as exit polls have a mixed record, said various brokerage firms.
“Exit polls have a mixed record, so the real deal is still May 23 when the actual results will be available,” Morgan Stanley said. On a similar note, HSBC said that the past polls have had a patchy record, and the Uttar Pradesh outcome remain uncertain.
“While mostly all exit polls this time are directionally speaking the same tune, we note that historically, exit polls have shown lack of accuracy in seat predictions and even in trend predictions,” said Madhavi Arora, Economist, FX & Rates, Edelweiss Securities Ltd.
“For instance, the 2004 exit polls depicted a NDA victory, but the actual outcome showed the Congress turning out to be the single largest party and formed the UPA alliance,” she added.
Nomura said that the exit polls suggest a better-than-expected result for the NDA, but near-term growth risks remain.” Do not foresee a major reversal of the current (weak) economic conditions in the short-term,” the brokerage said.
JPMorgan said that a stronger victory for the NDA, beyond 290 seats, could trigger a more robust response (3-5 per cent) but any slippage in the number of seats for the NDA would trigger a negative reaction.