New Delhi, Nov 17 — Intelligence assessments reviewed by the Indian government suggest that a steady inflow of Chinese-manufactured arms into Myanmar and India’s northeast is fueling insurgency and destabilizing the region. The development has raised red flags in New Delhi, particularly given its impact on India’s connectivity projects and security environment.
Flow of Illegal Weapons into Northeast India
This year alone, Indian security agencies have confiscated more than 420 illegal weapons across the northeastern states. The recovered arms include AK-47s, M-16 rifles, Chinese pistols, and locally modified explosives known as “lathodes.”
Officials believe that militant groups operating along the India–Myanmar border have been procuring weapons directly from Chinese suppliers, who find the demand lucrative. Insurgent groups from Assam, Manipur, Nagaland, and Mizoram reportedly maintain links with Chinese intelligence agencies, receiving not just weapons but also funding and logistical support.
Intelligence reports describe this as part of Beijing’s long-standing “diplo-terrorism” strategy, involving training, harboring exiled insurgent leaders, and funneling arms to rebel outfits hostile to India.
Myanmar: A Strategic Battleground
Myanmar’s geographic location makes it a critical player in the Indo-Pacific balance. It offers China a direct route to the Bay of Bengal and serves as a resource hub for Yunnan Province. At the same time, Chinese influence in Myanmar complicates India’s efforts to expand regional connectivity, especially through the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Project, which seeks to link India’s northeast with Myanmar’s Sittwe port.
Recent seizures have highlighted the scale of the problem. Authorities in Thailand’s Mae Sot district intercepted a shipment of Chinese-made weapons valued at nearly $1 million, including rifles, machine guns, anti-tank mines, and grenades. Earlier in the year, another cache of 500 assault rifles, machine guns, and even surface-to-air missiles was smuggled via Bangladesh into Myanmar’s Rakhine state, destined for the Arakan Army — a powerful insurgent group.
The Arakan Army’s Rising Role
The Arakan Army, designated a terrorist outfit by Myanmar, has emerged as a major recipient of Chinese arms. Formed in 2009 with assistance from the Kachin Independence Organisation near the China border, the group became more active in Rakhine and Chin states just as India’s Kaladan project began nearing completion in 2019.
In that year alone, nearly 600 clashes were reported between the Arakan Army and Myanmar’s military, many of them near Indian infrastructure projects. While the group has generally avoided overtly targeting the Kaladan project, its activities have repeatedly disrupted progress. Intelligence reports also reveal that the group has attempted to impose “taxes” on Indian projects while sparing Chinese-backed ventures, underlining Beijing’s sway.
Officials estimate that as much as 95 percent of the Arakan Army’s funding originates from China, making the group an indirect tool in Beijing’s larger geostrategic play.
India’s Strategic Challenge
Security sources argue that Chinese weapons funneled through both Thailand and Bangladesh demonstrate a deliberate effort to undercut India’s footprint in Myanmar. The Kaladan project’s proximity to China’s own Kyaukpyu-based Myanmar Economic Corridor intensifies competition between the two Asian powers.
Even Myanmar’s military leadership has privately acknowledged Beijing’s double game. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing reportedly raised concerns over China’s support to insurgents during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2020 visit, though Beijing officially denied involvement.
For India, the issue underscores a delicate balancing act: strengthening security in its northeast while safeguarding strategic investments in Myanmar, even as Chinese influence continues to expand in the neighborhood.
